Asia’s livestock and animal protein industries are once again being tested by geopolitical instability as tensions in the Middle East intensify. The effects on the energy, fertilizer, and feed markets are threatening production costs, food affordability, and protein supply chains.
The region’s vulnerability is significant. More than 80% of the oil and gas moving through the Strait of Hormuz flows into Asian markets. Oil prices are surging, freight rates are climbing, and fertilizer markets are tightening. For Asia’s feed and livestock sectors, the consequences are direct and difficult to absorb.
Corn and soy prices
Feed manufacturers and protein producers are already facing mounting pressure as corn and soybean costs rise alongside higher logistics and energy expenses. Poultry, swine, and aquaculture operations, all heavily dependent on imported feed ingredients, are particularly exposed.
According to the FAO, higher energy prices and fertilizer shortages could further constrain global grain production, creating cross-commodity inflation that spreads quickly through food systems, especially in import-dependent economies.
Thailand and Vietnam are already experiencing margin compression as feed costs rise faster than farmgate prices. Malaysia’s livestock industry, reliant on imported corn and soybean meal, is poorly insulated from external shocks. Singapore, which imports more than 90% of its food supply, remains among the highest exposed markets in the region.
“This is not just an energy issue anymore. It is becoming a food security issue,” said Ms Kanni Wignaraja, Assistant Secretary-General and Director of the UNDP Regional Bureau for Asia. While temporary subsidies and price controls may soften immediate impacts, she warned they do little to address Asia’s deeper structural dependence on imported energy and agricultural inputs.
The economic risks are substantial. UNDP estimates prolonged disruption to global energy and commodity flows could reduce Asia-Pacific economic output by USD 299 billion and push an additional 8.8 million people into poverty, with South Asia bearing the heaviest burden.
For the livestock sector, the timing is especially problematic.
Food security concerns
Speaking at the 38th FAO Asia-Pacific Regional Conference in Brunei, Philippine Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. warned that rising fuel, fertilizer, and freight costs are already affecting preparations for the country’s wet planting season.
“We meet at a moment when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have posed additional risks to global economic and food security through disruptions in oil, gas, and fertilizer exports, which have already triggered price hikes,” he said.
At the same time, regional protein supply chains continue battling animal disease outbreaks, including ASF and avian influenza.
“Sometimes exports are cut, there is ASF here, bird flu there, supply chains are disrupted. This has become normal, but it is a little more extreme this time,” Mr Laurel added.
India also faces growing pressure, as any prolonged disruption could overlap with the critical Kharif monsoon planting season, which begins in June. Pakistan, meanwhile, could see food inflation rise by as much as 5 percentage points under sustained conflict, due to escalating freight, fertilizer, and logistics costs.
Concerns about affordability
FAO data shows the number of people in lower-middle-income Asian economies unable to afford a healthy diet increased from 795 million in 2017 to 869 million in 2024. Although India has shown some improvement, much of Asia continues to experience food price growth outpacing income gains.
For Asia’s livestock and feed industries, the defining challenge is the speed at which disruptions now travel through interconnected supply chains. Energy shocks in the Middle East can translate into higher feed costs, tighter livestock margins, and more expensive protein on retail shelves within weeks.
That reality is forcing Asia’s agribusiness sector to rethink resilience, diversify sourcing strategies, and accelerate investment in local feed production and supply chain security before the next disruption arrives.
