Soybean crush forecast drops in September as economies crunch


The USDA lowered their forecast for global soybean crush and trade for 2023/24 as demand for meal drops in key demand centers in Asia.

The agency reduced global soybean crush by 1.8mt to 327.7mt, as crush levels drop in Pakistan, Thailand, Argentina, the EU, and the US.

Global soybean exports are reduced by 0.4mt to 168.4mt as exports from the US drop, despite Brazil and Ukraine seeing more sales. It sees lower imports for Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, and the EU.

On a positive note, Chinese crush and soybean import volumes are picking up. The September Wasde raised China’s crush by 1mt to 96mt in line with higher crush and domestic soybean meal demand in the prior marketing year.

“Conversely, China’s imports for 2022/23 and 2023/24 are increased on higher crush demand and large shipments from Brazil that are expected to continue into the next marketing year.”

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Lower production from the US

The US, which is seeing dry weather this season, forecasts lower beginning stocks, production, crush, exports, and ending stocks for soybeans in 2023/24.

Lower beginning stocks reflect an increase in exports in 2022/23. However, with weather worries, soybean production in 2023/24 is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, down 59 million with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield.

The soybean crush and export forecasts are reduced by 10 million bushels and 35 million bushels, respectively, on lower supplies. The USDA project ending stocks at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from August.

Global soybean ending stocks are reduced by 0.2mt to 119.2mt.